This is in response to Rich Lowry’s “The Absurd Case Against The Lockdown.”
The coronavirus is being held in check because my next-door neighbor’s dog barks every night. Prove me wrong. Actually, it’s easy to prove that is wrong by running a statistical analysis correlating the dog barking to cases of coronavirus.
Everyone assumes that the “lockdown” and other measures are reducing the number of cases without any proof. After running an analysis comparing the date that measures were instituted against the number of cases showed the R-squared to be -0.27. Comparing the date that measures were instituted against the growth rate of cases yielded an R-squared of 0.17. A low R-squared indicates a low correlation. In other words, these measures are having a minimal effect on the spread of the virus.
Of course, the best way to determine the effectiveness of restrictive measures would be to perform an experiment locking down one group of individuals and comparing the resulting cases with a test group with no restrictions. This would be very unethical to perform. But wait … that actually happened in Florida where large groups of people congregated on the beaches while other coastal areas closed their beaches. The predictions were for massive spread of the disease in Florida. It never happened.
Take precautions. Wash your hands. Cover your mouth when you cough or sneeze. Stay home if you are feeling sick. Avoid crowds if you are “at risk.” But let’s all get back to living our lives based on facts, not fear.
