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WARNING: The following column may be considered triggering to Notre Dame fans. If you or someone you love has experienced being overly sensitive about the Irish in the past, this column may not be for you.
Hello my pretties.
As you could probably tell by the above disclaimer, we’re going to stay in the world of college football for the second week in a row to introduce the column. Ironically enough, if I had saved my rant on the AP Poll for this week, I would have probably found more issues than last time, but I’m not going to dip into that same well twice.
Instead, I’m going to talk about Notre Dame football.
Growing up in a Chicago suburb and being surrounded by more than a few obnoxious Irish fans radicalized me against them from an early age. While I do hold biases of my own, I will attempt to be as objective as possible when addressing this situation. If you don’t like that, then you can stop reading. But if you’re a fan of one of the biggest brands in the sport, people like me come with the territory. I digress.
Notre Dame currently sits at 0-2 with a pair of losses to No. 4 Miami and No. 10 Texas A&M. It’s a far cry from last year’s team losing to Northern Illinois in the home opener. But even still, two losses this early in the season have put the Irish in a deep hole. As far as I’m concerned, there’s no getting out of it.
If I were on the College Football Playoff Committee, Notre Dame would have 0% chance of making the playoff moving forward. Not 5%, not 1%, ZERO. PERCENT.
I can hear the outcries from here. “Connor, people said the same thing last year after the NIU game. They finished the season strong and made the National Championship game.”
“Why should the Irish be penalized for scheduling such a tough start to the season? Everybody else is playing cupcakes!”
“They lost those two games by a combined four points. You just hate Notre Dame!”
That last part MAY be true but it is not the reason I think this way. Let’s dive deeper.
Yes, Notre Dame bounced back from that NIU loss in a big way last year and turned it into a deep playoff run. Last year’s team also boasted one of the best defenses in the entire country. That certainly is not the case this year.
I’ve seen a lot of talk about how the Irish lost those two games by just four points. A number that I find much more important is 68. That’s the number of points the team has given up in two games. They scored 40 on Saturday and still lost. This ain’t last year’s defense, Al Golden isn’t walking through that door, and as weak as the schedule is going forward, I don’t think you can feel confident at all about running the table again.
Let’s talk about that schedule for a second. The Irish have 10 regular season games remaining. Only one of those games is against a team (No. 25 USC) that is currently ranked in the (worthless) AP Poll. Eight of those games are against Power 4 schools, yet a whopping one of them finished in the top five of their conferences last year. Compare that to a school in the Big Ten or SEC that is playing a top 50 team in the country nearly every week, and that’s not really much of a comparison at all.
The schedule, as always, could evolve as the season goes by and those games that look easy now may end up being harder down the line. While that would be good for resume purposes, can you really feel that confident with the way you’ve looked thus far?
Even if they were to win out, which I don’t see happening based on how truly atrocious that defense looks, I would put any Big 10 or SEC team with two losses above them. I might even put in a three loss team from one of those conferences in the playoff first. You had two chances this season against great teams. You lost both of them. Beating up on bad ones the rest of the way when other teams are being tested in conference play doesn’t move the needle for me.
Yes, I do credit Notre Dame for challenging themselves with these tough early season matchups when so many other top schools fill the first few weeks with FCS schools and other bottom feeders. But when I remember what the rest of their schedule looks like, that respect fades away fast. I could get into the whole “Notre Dame should join a conference” debate too while I’m here, but I’ve got NFL picks to make and I’m sure I’ve already made you all angry enough.
Despite not winning a game in eight months, the Irish are still ranked No. 24 in the country. This tells me that if they do find a way to win out, they’ll find a way to sneak into the playoff. If that happens, I’ll admit I was wrong. But we’ve got a loooong way to go to get to that point.
Since I was so negative for so long, I’ll finish things off by saying one nice thing about Notre Dame: CJ Carr looks really good. You’re welcome.
Let’s pick some winners. I was on fire last week and hope to keep it rolling.
FAVORITE FAVORITE
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-11.5)
You guys know me well at this point. I hate these super large spreads, so for me to be picking one as my favorite pick of the week, you know I have to feel good about it. As high as I am on the Bills, I may be even lower on the Dolphins. Miami is dead in the water right now. The offense is terrible and the defense is even worse. With a short week to have to deal with Josh Allen, this spells disaster. The Bills offense is absolutely cooking through two weeks and this will be the worst defense Buffalo has faced yet.
The Pick: Bills -11.5
BIG DOG GOTTA EAT
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5)
The Texans have truly perplexed me these last few years. CJ Stroud burst onto the scene as a rookie but in a year and change since, he’s really regressed. The defense is still good, so there’s that. Meanwhile, Jacksonville should be 2-0 but they let Jake Browning stage a comeback on them. While the Jags have looked frisky through a couple of games, I’m still not high on them. I think the perfect spot for the Texans offense to get back in a rhythm is in a big divisional game.
The Pick: Texans +2.5
BEAR DOWN
Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1.5)
I’m going to have to chalk this up to Vegas knowing something I don’t. If I didn’t have to pick the Bears game, the Cowboys would be my favorite underdog by a country mile. Chicago looks horrible to start the year, and it already feels like rock bottom after giving up more than 50 points in Week 2. I guess there’s nowhere to go but up, but I don’t see it happening. Dallas has looked really good offensively thus far. I’d imagine they tee off here.
The Pick: Cowboys +1.5
THIS IS OUR COLTS
Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Colts have been one of the best stories thus far in the early season. Daniel “Indiana” Jones has revitalized his career in the span of a few short weeks, and the offense is humming. The Titans on the other hand have struggled to find bright spots outside of No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward, who has looked decent in his first two NFL starts. I think Indy heads onto the road and picks up a big divisional win to move to 3-0.
The Pick: Colts -4.5
GAME OF THE WEEK
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
On a week where the slate doesn’t pop out at you when you look at it, this is the only game that does. After a tough Week 1 for both teams, each side bounced back in a big way last week to pick up a pair of blowout victories. The Baltimore defense looked a lot more like what I thought it would against the Browns last Sunday, and if that unit looks like that again, I think it could be a long day for the Lions. With that being said, 5.5 feels like a little much. But, when you think about how powerful that Ravens’ offense can be when it’s humming, it makes sense. The team does struggle to close out games though, and the Lion offense is more than capable of making up that difference in a short time.
The Pick: Lions +5.5
As always, enjoy the wonderful football this weekend. Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 4-1
Season Record: 7-4
