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I would like to abolish the AP Poll for the first five weeks of the college football season.
I feel like the discourse around polls and rankings has really amped up this year, so I figured I’d throw my two cents into the ring. Personally, I am not a fan of the preseason poll. I think a large chunk of voters either use their biases to prop up their own teams while pooh pooing their rivals, or, more commonly, they don’t know much about who is good or not before the season starts, so they look at team logos they recognize and figure since they recognize them, that team should be ranked.
A few examples of this that we’ve already seen this year: Alabama began the season in the top 10. Alabama lost four games last year, is starting a quarterback that was on their bench and that they didn’t believe in for four years, and has a head coach that most of the fanbase had already been skeptical about before this season. But since their name is ‘Alabama,” that didn’t matter to anyone. How did they reward their loyal followers? They got dominated in the season opener by a Florida State team that won two games last year. Could FSU actually be a juggernaut this season and we just don’t know it yet? Sure, but that adds to my point.
In the era of the transfer portal and the NIL, roster turnover can happen so suddenly and so quickly. A team that didn’t make a bowl game the year prior can add the right pieces and all of a sudden, they’re contending for a playoff spot. With so much constant change and turnover, we cannot possibly know who is good and who is not until we play the games, yet these rankings are based off of these very rosters.
This brings me to my next example: Clemson. The Tigers are an outlier. Dabo Swinney does not like using the portal. Most of his team this year has been there for their whole careers and have developed together. Clemson wasn’t very good last year, but that’s okay. They’re a year older and better, so that means they’re a top 10 team.
Except they aren’t.
Through two games, the team possesses many of the same issues it did last year, especially offensively. I mean, the team fell behind 16-0 to Troy on Saturday. Unacceptable for a supposed title contender. So in this case, the voters looked at a roster that severely underperformed last year, saw it was mostly the same and figured that because they’re a year older now, this is somehow a top 10 team in the country. How does any of this make sense?
(It doesn’t)
You’re probably thinking to yourself, so what? These teams started being ranked highly, but they lost, so they moved down. What’s the big deal? The other problem is that doesn’t always happen. Florida was embarrassed at home this week by the University of South Florida, and the Gators looked awful in the loss. Somehow, someway, one AP voter moved them up two spots in their poll. Plain and simple, that should be that person’s last vote.
Teams that begin the season in the rankings have a hard time falling as quickly as teams that work their way up over the course of the season but then suffer an ill-timed loss just as they break through. The blue-blood bias is real, and it shows every week. But lucky for you all, I come offering solutions.
I personally believe that you shouldn’t rank anyone until week 5. By that point, every team in the country has played some games that are not so tough, like FCS and inferior opponents, as well as at least one or two games that have been real tests. Now you’ve got enough data points to properly look at it. You can see things like margin of victory, success rates, game film to actually look at the talent with your own eyes and not just a box score or a roster sheet that shows how many five-star players a team has.
Secondly, we need to seriously look at who is placing these votes. While there is a separate committee that begins ranking teams later in the year and actually chooses the playoff field, you can’t tell me that the AP Poll doesn’t have any bearing on where they start these conversations. There are a ton of media personalities that do not vote on stuff like this but live and breathe the sport so much more than the people who do. A lot of these folks are beat writers that spend their entire Saturday watching one team. How are they supposed to rank the rest of the country in good faith? These polls aren’t going anywhere, but the least we could do is put them in the right hands.
Anyway, I’ve spent way too much time ranting and raving about this. I still love college football, especially on a weekend where Missouri beat kansas, but that’s why I rant and rave. I know this sport can be so much better, and I want it to get there. Maybe later this year I’ll share another idea of mine to fix it.
Let’s pick some games.
FAVORITE FAVORITE
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders
I had trouble choosing between both Los Angeles teams for this week’s favorite, and it came down to the Chargers not having to travel across the country for their road game. Justin Herbert looked great in his team’s season opening victory over the Chiefs, leading me to wonder if this could finally be the breakout year I’ve been waiting for out of him. The Raiders opened the season with a win in New England, something I picked directly against, but this will be a much tougher test for them. Hopefully this time I can correctly pick their defeat.
The Pick: Chargers -3
BIG DOG GOTTA EAT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2.5)
I am really high on Tampa Bay this year, and that should be no surprise to people who have read this column for years. I love Baker Mayfield and the weapons he has to work with. On the other side, something has been weird in Houston ever since CJ Stroud’s phenomenal rookie year. I like the Bucs to go on the road Monday night and come away with a victory. By the way, I’m definitely not picking this game as an apology to my friend Matt for spoiling Tampa’s game-winning drive last week.
The Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
BEAR DOWN
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5.5)
I can’t say I was surprised that the Bears found a way to blow their season opener against the Vikings on Monday night. I went into this season much more pessimistic than I ever have and they certainly didn’t give me any reason to change that. I have serious concerns about Caleb Williams and the team moving forward. The only good news for them is that Detroit looked just as bad when getting dominated by the Packers on Sunday. Both offenses looked really bad in week one, can either improve here? I think the Lions win the game but by a field goal or four points. As down as I am on the Bears, their opponent was just too bad last week to warrant this line.
The Pick: Bears +5.5
THIS IS OUR COLTS
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Include me in the group of people that did not expect Daniel Jones to ball out in his Colts’ debut last weekend, but I did expect the Dolphins to look pretty lifeless. A whole different team is coming to town this week, as the Broncos and their hopes of being a playoff team will be a much bigger test for Indy. Even still, I think the Colts will continue to surprise some people and pull out a big one at home.
The Pick: Colts +2.5
GAME OF THE WEEK
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Like last week, it was pretty easy to pick this one. Doesn’t get much bigger than a Super Bowl rematch. If this game is half as good as Bills-Ravens was, we’ll be in for a treat. The Eagles won their season opener against Dallas while the Chiefs fell to the Chargers in Brazil. Xavier Worthy got hurt on the first drive, meaning Pat Mahomes will be without a top weapon for some time yet again. His receiver health really is the monkey’s paw consequence of his talent. Anyways, I’m much higher on Philly this season than I am KC. A world where the Chiefs start 0-2? I think we’re heading that way.
The Pick: Eagles -1.5
That’s all I’ve got for you guys this week. Hopefully the next time we talk my Missouri Tigers are 3-0.
Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 3-3
Season Record: 3-3
