I am sitting here staring at my scorecards as I prepare for Friday night’s Warsaw-Penn football broadcast.
One of the things I like to do is think along with the coaches of the two teams on how they will go about trying to win each area of the game and how the other might react. I try not to dwell on it too much because I am not a coach and I don’t like pretending to be one. So for me it’s more an exercise in matchups and familiarizing myself with the opposing team’s players.
But I do like to figure out, in my own mind, who is favored to win, and why, and then offer ideas on how the team I see as the underdog can make the contest turnout in their favor.
And thus, the question “how do upsets happen?”
There are a lot of factors that can lead to a favored team not winning. Each one, by itself, wouldn’t be a big deal. But combine a couple of them and you may have yourself something.
Pregame over-confidence. Coaches will tell you that most of what determines who will win and lose a game is decided before the visiting bus pulls into the home team’s parking lot. If that’s true, and I think it seems to be, then one of the first things that must happen for an upset to occur is that the members of the better team have to overlook the underdog at least a little bit – a lot if they are a heavy favorite. Effort matters, and if the better team goes into a game and is not sharp in using their skill to execute their game plan, they leave the door open to the lesser team having a fighting chance.
The venue. Obviously, an underdog playing on their home field or court has a distinct advantage. A lesser team gains strength and confidence by large and loud support from its home patrons. And equally obvious is the comfort of their own locker room, field conditions, shooting backgrounds and not having to travel to the game.
The first impression. If the favorite comes in a little unfocused or lackadaisical, or is emotionally not prepared to deal with the travel and crowd pressure of playing on the road, it usually shows up pretty quick when the game starts. A favored team can do itself a huge favor by getting an early lead and flexing its muscle, thus putting doubt into the minds of the players and fans of the underdog. If the underdog gets an early lead – maybe makes it to the end of the first segment of the game even or ahead – it reinforces the pregame belief that it could win. And the longer that belief remains, the better the team will play and the better its chances of hanging on until the end.
Performance issues. It’s rare that a favorite can play really well and still lose to a team they are heavily favored to beat. Upsets are aided when the star or stars of the better team are not shooting well or blocking and tackling or advancing the ball up the soccer pitch the way they normally do. Conversely, getting an unusually excellent performance from a couple of members of the underdog side will not only keep them in the game but further that belief I mentioned.
The weather. Warsaw football played a game in 2009 at home against a highly-favored Homestead team in miserable conditions. The Spartans wanted to throw the ball all over the place, but it was rainy, and the wind was blowing across the grassy/muddy field at 25 to 30 mph. The Tigers won the game that night because the weather acted as a 12th and 13th defender against a Homestead offense that was far superior. Weather is a great equalizer.
A rivalry. Dig into the history of any rivalry, and you will find a team on one side that is really good who loses to their rival who is not very good simply because it’s (insert your favorite rivalry here). The whole thing about “throwing out the records when so-and-so play” really is true. Just seeing the colors of a hated rival’s jersey can lift the collective spirit of a struggling team.
The breaks of a game. In every game in every sport at every level, the course of a game can change with something that seems harmless at the time it happens. Maybe a two-out, bases empty ground ball up the middle hits the second base bag and bounces away from an infielder for a base hit that leads to a big inning. Maybe a hockey player just simply flips a puck toward the net and it hits two legs and a skate and ends up in the back of net. Maybe it’s an official’s call – charge-block, ball-strike or catch-no catch. Whatever it is, the underdog may only need one of those things to go its way (especially early or late) to help the cause.
There is a common theme here: the team that is supposed to be better must underperform to give the other team an opportunity. Whatever the reason for that, it starts there.
