Continuously serving Kosciusko County since 1854
Well folks, we’ve finally reached the tipping point.
We are mere days away from finally finding out who the 12 teams in the College Football Playoff will be. On Tuesday night, we got our final look at what the bracket looks like before the finished product is revealed this Sunday.
All of our college football discussions have led us to this moment. To celebrate the occasion, I thought I’d give one final look at the teams up for the playoff and give my thoughts as to how this might play out. As of now, it looks like nine of the spots are filled and locked in. They are as follows:
12-0 Ohio State
12-0 Indiana
11-1 Georgia
11-1 Texas Tech
11-1 Oregon
11-1 Ole Miss
11-1 Texas A&M
AAC Champion (either Tulane or North Texas)
Last remaining conference champion
That last spot is interesting. If Virginia wins the ACC championship game, they will be in. But, if they find a way to lose to 7-5 Duke, there’s a real chance that the highest ranked remaining conference champion will be the Sun Belt’s James Madison, giving playoff bids to two Group of 5 teams. Something to keep an eye on.
Now, if my math is correct, that leaves three spots left up for grabs. The way things stand, it looks as if anywhere between five and seven teams have a chance to snag them. They are as follows:
10-2 Oklahoma
10-2 Alabama
10-2 Notre Dame
11-1 BYU
10-2 Miami
You can also throw 9-3 Texas and 10-2 Vanderbilt in there as well, but they are pretty much out of contention and have no games remaining to try to add a resume boost.
Based on what we’ve seen from the rankings committee, Oklahoma looks to be safely in the field. They are probably the worst team on the list I just made, but they do have the best resume.
Now we’re down to two spots, and this is where things get interesting. I find it highly unlikely that Alabama will be dropped out of the playoff if they lose the SEC championship game to Georgia. For that to happen, I think they’d have to be blown out. But if they were to win, they all of a sudden hold an automatic bid, and the committee is not going to keep Georgia out if its second loss comes in an extra game.
You have the same situation in the Big 12. If BYU is able to pull off the upset of the Red Raiders and steal a bid, Texas Tech will still be in the playoff. The only difference between BYU and Bama is that the Tide will still likely be in the playoffs with a loss, while the Cougars will not. They are already on the outside looking in.
So, if Alabama and BYU both win on Saturday, the field is set. It is the nine teams I mentioned earlier, Oklahoma, Alabama and BYU. If either or both teams lose, I think Alabama does get in as long as the game is competitive, while the last spot is opened up.
I’m sure you can see where I’m going with this.
In the most recent rankings, Alabama switched spots with Notre Dame, with the Tide jumping to nine and the Irish falling to 10. I found this interesting for quite a few reasons, but most notably the fact that now just one team separates ND from Miami in the rankings: BYU.
I think that was entirely intentional. If BYU loses the Big 12 title game this weekend and drops, Notre Dame and Miami will be right next to each other with the most likely case being that only one spot is available. This is incredibly significant.
If these two teams are right next to each other in the final rankings, Miami has to be selected over Notre Dame. This is not my anti-ND bias talking. This has to be done to protect the sanctity of the sport.
If the Irish get in over Miami despite having lost to the Hurricanes on the field, everything goes out the window. Games do not matter anymore, point blank. If what happens on the football field does not determine who is playing for a national championship and who isn’t, then whatever determines who does is a joke.
If you ask me, the only way Notre Dame can make the playoff is if Miami does so as well. The only problem is that there’s not enough spots for both. Neither of these teams have a better resume than Alabama, even if the Tide lose in the SEC championship.
Also, what’s not being talked about enough is that BYU should have a better shot than all three of these teams, but is being considered an afterthought unless they are able to win the Big 12. Whatever.
So, assuming Texas Tech beats the Cougars a second time, my 12-team playoff looks like this.
Ohio State
Indiana
Georgia
Texas Tech
Oregon
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Oklahoma
Alabama
Miami
AAC Champion
ACC Champion or Sun Belt Champion
If it were up to me, this is how it would play out. But this committee has not made a lick of sense all year, so I doubt it ends up being that easy. We will all find out together this weekend.
I went a little longer than I anticipated, so I unfortunately do not have time this week to make fun of Penn State for still not having a head coach. Bummer. I’ll give my two cents on it eventually I’m sure. Let’s dive into picks!
FAVORITE FAVORITE
Denver Broncos (-7.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
I usually try to pick something interesting in this spot instead of just constantly going against the worst teams in the league, but I can’t help myself here. This Raiders team is an embarrassment to the game of football. Just truly disgusting to watch. The Broncos on the other hand aren’t too pretty, but man are they good at winning games. The first time these two teams played it was shockingly close. Not seeing that happening twice.
The Pick: Broncos -7.5
BIG DAWG GOTTA EAT
Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
I had to find a way to pick this game this week, as I will be in attendance alongside my fantasy football league mates. The Vikings are a disaster right now, so much so that Adam Thielen, who spent most of his career in Minnesota, asked to be released in what will be his last season just so he could play somewhere else. Yikes. Washington is having a pretty bad season as well, but at least they are playing entertaining football. No matter who is playing QB for Minnesota, I’m afraid it’s a lost cause.
The Pick: Commanders +1.5
BEAR DOWN
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)
I’ll say it. This line is downright disrespectful. My Bears just went into Philly and manhandled the Super Bowl champs. I can assure you they are not afraid of “Jordan Love.” Chicago has caught a lot of flack this season for stacking up wins against inferior opponents. Considering most of the league is inferior to this Bears team, that makes sense. This is the biggest game they’ve played in years and I will be rushing out of the stadium to make sure I’m ready to watch this one. Do I even need to say who I’m picking?
The Pick: Bears +6.5 (and to win by a billion)
THIS IS OUR COLTS
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts have looked off for the better part of a month now, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has been playing well enough to both catch and surpass Indy in the AFC South standings. These are two teams headed in opposite directions and I’m really conflicted on which way to go. I’ve been riding with the Colts all year, but the stoutness of the Jags run D concerns me. I have to go with the home team.
The Pick: Jaguars +1.5
GAME OF THE WEEK
Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3)
Don’t look now, but the Cowboys are surging right now and are making a serious push towards a playoff spot. As was the case in the previous game, their opponent is heading in the opposite direction. The Lions have not looked like themselves all season long, and it’s manifesting into a ton of losses right now. I think they stack another one. Dallas’ offense is among the best in the league right now. I’m expecting a big night from them on Thursday.
The Pick: Cowboys +3
So there you have it. I did not plan on picking four underdogs but I guess we’re hungry this week. I hope you all had a Happy Thanksgiving. We'll talk soon. Whatever happens on Sunday’s selection show, I promise I won’t devote yet another column to Notre Dame football.
Cheers.
Last Week’s Record: 3-2
Season Record: 34-25
